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troodee1893

Just How Safe Are We?

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Postings in various topics have shown some of the permutations that could happen. Remembering the end of season 2004/05 (2 draws and 3 defeats from the final 5 games) and having been at Livingston that fateful day 21/5/05 I do tend to look on the negative side of things. OK we are safe from automatic relegation but two defeats for us and two wins for Partick and it all depends on tiebreakers i.e. assuming Hamilton don't win one of their final two games. If Hamilton beat Motherwell (perfectly possible in a derby with Motherwell having eyes on the Cup Final) the following set of results could happen (hope not of course!).

 

Partick 2-0 Motherwell

Ross Co. 2-0 Dundee

Partick would then have to beat us by 3 goals assuming no worse results than above. Not likely I know but those set of circumstances would leave us on the same points as Partick, the same goals difference and the same number of goals scored. The next tiebreaker is points gained against each other in the season; that would be 2 wins each. The next tiebreaker would be goals difference between the two clubs in the four league games; again equal assuming a 3 goal Partick win. Last tiebreaker a one off playoff over 90 minutes at a neutral ground! 

The foregoing is an unlikely set of circumstances but would be 'interesting' if that is the word. My worry is more that we lose at Ross Co. and Partick, against all form, have a freak result against a disinterested Motherwell say 4-0. Then Partick would only require to win by 2 goals at Dens to go ahead of us on goals scored.

Lets hope we get at least a point in Dingwall to put to bed all the negativity swirling around in my head.

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I'm not celebrating yet either, get a point or three on tuesday and I'll be partying like its 1999.

200w.webp

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Motherwell won't get beat again by a huge amount this season, yesterday against St Johnstone has probably done us good, they will be right up for the Partick game. 

Partick have scored 10 (ten) away goals all season.

Partick have kept one clean sheet in their last 16matches. 

If, Hamilton fail to win their two matches (which could happen), it doesn't matter what Partick do as Hamilton would be in the play off spot. 

We are safe 

 

Edited by GregTeamDee
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Like the OP, I appreciate this age-related apprehension is perhaps groundless, but......

Until Tuesday's results hopefully turn our '99% safe' theory into mathematical certainty, there's something nagging at my mind, like a toothache that won't go away.

Just win in Dingwall, lads, please. :)  

Then we can see what we can maybe do to 'sort it' for Partick & Hamilton ;)   

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I’m not counting any chickens yet. Unless we pick up at least a point on Tuesday, or Partick fail to win, nothing is over. And I’m sure NM will have that drilled into the players.

But I’d rather be in our position than Partick’s or Hamilton’s. 

Having a team between us and 11th also makes things slightly more comfortable, because it’s two teams results that need to go the wrong way (for us) rather than just one.

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1 minute ago, WoodStein said:

Like the OP, I appreciate this age-related apprehension is perhaps groundless, but......

Until Tuesday's results hopefully turn our '99% safe' theory into mathematical certainty, there's something nagging at my mind, like a toothache that won't go away.

Just win in Dingwall, lads, please. :)  

Then we can see what we can maybe do to 'sort it' for Partick & Hamilton ;)   

Are you suggesting something tentwoesque ???? :jawdrop:

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3 minutes ago, chomp my root said:

Are you suggesting something tentwoesque ???? :jawdrop:

:happyno:

:spock:  

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5 minutes ago, markthedee said:

I’m not counting any chickens yet. Unless we pick up at least a point on Tuesday, or Partick fail to win, nothing is over. And I’m sure NM will have that drilled into the players.

But I’d rather be in our position than Partick’s or Hamilton’s. 

Having a team between us and 11th also makes things slightly more comfortable, because it’s two teams results that need to go the wrong way (for us) rather than just one.

Hamilton have St Johnstone and Motherwell for their last two games and they could be right down there come the end of the season. Would rather have them playing the DABS in the play-offs (If they get past Livi) than Partick at the moment.

Would love us to get the three points and and seal County's fate to the Championship next season. That will make it a lot harder for the dabs to come up again next season. ICT, Dunfermline and County, that will be a tough league ?

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1 minute ago, TheDarkBlues said:

Hamilton have St Johnstone and Motherwell for their last two games and they could be right down there come the end of the season. Would rather have them playing the DABS in the play-offs (If they get past Livi) than Partick at the moment.

Would love us to get the three points and and seal County's fate to the Championship next season. That will make it a lot harder for the dabs to come up again next season. ICT, Dunfermline and County, that will be a tough league ?

You would guess that County will spend big to get back up too. ?

 

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1 minute ago, chomp my root said:

You would guess that County will spend big to get back up too. ?

 

Yeah, I'm sure that they will have a team that will win promotion next season. ?

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3 minutes ago, Frank Grimes said:

I would say that that the odds of us finishing 11th are the same as they were of Hamilton beaten Morton by 8 in 2014. 

Another pessimist like me! Brings back memories of a great day only great because of 'the save' that saved our season.

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3 minutes ago, Frank Grimes said:

I would say that that the odds of us finishing 11th are the same as they were of Hamilton beaten Morton by 8 in 2014. 

?

That was some day, for two reasons. Winning the league and Morton and Hamilton cheating!

Don't think my heart could stand that again! lol

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12 minutes ago, TheDarkBlues said:

Hamilton have St Johnstone and Motherwell for their last two games and they could be right down there come the end of the season. Would rather have them playing the DABS in the play-offs (If they get past Livi) than Partick at the moment.

Would love us to get the three points and and seal County's fate to the Championship next season. That will make it a lot harder for the dabs to come up again next season. ICT, Dunfermline and County, that will be a tough league ?

Add to that a probably better Falkirk and whoever fails in the play off final if Livi beat United this week and you have a hell of a league!!

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2 minutes ago, troodee1893 said:

Add to that a probably better Falkirk and whoever fails in the play off final if Livi beat United this week and you have a hell of a league!!

You're not getting all misty eyed and nostalgic are you ??? ?

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1 minute ago, troodee1893 said:

Add to that a probably better Falkirk and whoever fails in the play off final if Livi beat United this week and you have a hell of a league!!

As well as the teams themselves being tough, there’s a hell of a lot of travelling - two trips to each of Inverness, Ross County, Queen of the South and Ayr Utd. 

That’s another reason I want our status confirmed ASAP!

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1 minute ago, troodee1893 said:

Add to that a probably better Falkirk and whoever fails in the play off final if Livi beat United this week and you have a hell of a league!!

Ross County, Hamilton/Thistle, Falkirk, Dunfermline, Falkirk, Inverness CT,  Morton, QOS and the Dabs.

That is going to be one hard  league to get out. That league will be between County and ICT for me.

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6 minutes ago, TheDarkBlues said:

Ross County, Hamilton/Thistle, Falkirk, Dunfermline, Falkirk, Inverness CT,  Morton, QOS and the Dabs.

That is going to be one hard  league to get out. That league will be between County and ICT for me.

I wouldn't write off the 'fallen Mesiah', second half of the season he's got Falkirk playing a lot better.

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I think that United will win promotion this year even though they are not much. Think the luck they had against Dunfermline will boost them against Livi and then who knows who they will get. I think if it is Hamilton then it will be some battle.

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