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Coronavirus, Should We Be Worried?


TheDarkBlues

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Coronavirus: International cases climb with at least 40 countries affected
 
Latest:
  • At least 80,000 global cases are confirmed,
  • The death toll stands at over 2,700,
  • South Korea reports hundreds of cases,
  • Italy places around 50,000 people in quarantine,
  • Schools across Japan to close amid outbreak

Is this the epidemic which could be the next black plague or worse?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

This makes me think of those zombie apocalyptic films which you first hear about on the news with someone dying after being bitten and a few weeks later it's just Rick Grimes and Daryl Dixon protecting the world with bats and cross bows! 😂

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No, we shouldn't be (too) worried [I'm not, but we all have different circumstances]...if it spreads, it spreads, but we can't all live indoors for a year....we'll die of something else, like starvation! As with any virus/flu, those with 'underlying health conditions' are at far greater risk.

[I can appreciate, though, that if you have holidays booked with kids, or you have elderly/ill relatives, it's probably more of a concern] 

There seems to have been a fair bit of incompetence (eg, the cruise ship in Japan), and a fair bit of way over-cautious stuff. No-one should read the Daily Mail/Express....I forget which one is health-scare & which one is apocalyptic-weather fixated. Avoid both ;)  

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No, the media have picked it up and are running with it. The over reaction has been embarrassing, good excuse to "self-quarantine" from work for a couple of weeks though. 

Plus the recovery rate is far greater than the mortality rate which is at 2% and the deaths have been largely the very old and/or already ill.

To put minds at ease almost 78,000 people have died of the flu this year.

Actually, 78,000 just for the flu😷. PANIC, BE AWARE, PLEASE SHARE! And so on...

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Not sure people are quite getting what the publicity is really all about.

We should of course be worried. Not because of the effects of the virus if you catch it. But for the following reasons

1. The full extent of this pandemic still isn't quite known for sure. That means it could be much worse than anything we have seen since 1918 (spanish Flu) Better to be safe than sorry.

2. If it does spread in the UK - and that largely depends on the measures the Gvernment takes in the coming weeks - we might face restrictions on gatherings which might include attendance at workplaces. So, if you are a contractor or on a minumim wage contract, you might end up not getting paid for weeks.

3. The biggest issue, I think is that many countries are just not testing people. The US has tested fewer than 500 so far. Britain seems to be testing thousands more, but probably still not as many as will need to better understand the spread.

4. There seem to be three different approaches being taken by countries

a. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Italy - Full testing of anyone with symptoms and extreme control measures

b. Other European countries and the US - very limited testing, more concerned with public image than actually doing anything - but this will change as virus spreads

c. Almost all developing countries - prepared to take the hit on population (not as bad as it sounds due to high number of other diseases that routinely kill citizens and the belief that this is a winter virus and they don't usually have much of a winter.)

The fact that so many countries are in group c. and if it is virulent in higher temperatures would mean that this thing could hang around for many months.

Football matches are an obvious choice for meausres against visrus spread. The season will likely have to be extended by a few weeks to allow for it and the Euros might also be delayed to let national leagues clear fixtures

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2 hours ago, andrak said:

 

The fact that so many countries are in group c. and if it is virulent in higher temperatures would mean that this thing could hang around for many months.

I've heard a few times now that it's believed to be more virulent in colder weather, and authorities are looking forward to spring & summer to help control it. Don't know if this is 'scientific', or speculation by 'experts'.

The areas of Italy where they have most cases are in the north, where this time of year is still an Alpine area winter, though maybe not as cold as in previous decades. That's a bit inconsistent with Singapore & Taiwan though. 

I guess we've known for a long time that nature would eventually find a way to 'regulate' the rapidly rising size of human population, as it seems to have done for centuries. 

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2 hours ago, andrak said:

Not sure people are quite getting what the publicity is really all about.

We should of course be worried. Not because of the effects of the virus if you catch it. But for the following reasons

1. The full extent of this pandemic still isn't quite known for sure. That means it could be much worse than anything we have seen since 1918 (spanish Flu) Better to be safe than sorry.

2. If it does spread in the UK - and that largely depends on the measures the Gvernment takes in the coming weeks - we might face restrictions on gatherings which might include attendance at workplaces. So, if you are a contractor or on a minumim wage contract, you might end up not getting paid for weeks.

3. The biggest issue, I think is that many countries are just not testing people. The US has tested fewer than 500 so far. Britain seems to be testing thousands more, but probably still not as many as will need to better understand the spread.

4. There seem to be three different approaches being taken by countries

a. Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Italy - Full testing of anyone with symptoms and extreme control measures

b. Other European countries and the US - very limited testing, more concerned with public image than actually doing anything - but this will change as virus spreads

c. Almost all developing countries - prepared to take the hit on population (not as bad as it sounds due to high number of other diseases that routinely kill citizens and the belief that this is a winter virus and they don't usually have much of a winter.)

The fact that so many countries are in group c. and if it is virulent in higher temperatures would mean that this thing could hang around for many months.

Football matches are an obvious choice for meausres against visrus spread. The season will likely have to be extended by a few weeks to allow for it and the Euros might also be delayed to let national leagues clear fixtures

Good points Andrak. I think it will spread to Britain and I think we will make matters far worse for ourselves thanks to our 24/7 news, fake news and got to find something to speculate about news. My interest is in why China appear to have taken such draconian measures to combat the virus and stop it spreading. If the mortality rates are so much lower than normal flu viruses which they regularly suffer why take such a hard line with a virus that, as I understand it, is less harmful than flu? I'm not trying to drawn any conclusion, merely wondering what it is about this virus that has got them so wound up.

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9 minutes ago, BCram said:

Good points Andrak. I think it will spread to Britain and I think we will make matters far worse for ourselves thanks to our 24/7 news, fake news and got to find something to speculate about news. My interest is in why China appear to have taken such draconian measures to combat the virus and stop it spreading. If the mortality rates are so much lower than normal flu viruses which they regularly suffer why take such a hard line with a virus that, as I understand it, is less harmful than flu? I'm not trying to drawn any conclusion, merely wondering what it is about this virus that has got them so wound up.

China has taken draconian measure because it can. Few countries can do what they have done and actually, I believe they haven't done nearly as much as they are asking the world to believe. The videos and pictures they are allowing to be sent out depict only relatively high-end areas and those measures that directly impact relatively wealthy people. China has shockingly bad hygiene standards and very poor healthcare standards for most citizens. I believe it would be almost impossible to reduce the spread of this virus even with much more draconian actions. The numbers coming from China are for western consumption. Many believe there is perhaps a factor of 10 difference between what is actually known and what is being reported. As for the difference between what is known and what is actually happening depends on how many tests they are conducting. The issue there is that, like many other countries, if you don't test people, you can't have confirmed infections.

I think while the mortality rate is much less than the common flu, meaning that many more people die each year from ordinary flu, the case fatality rate rate for corona is about 20 times higher than that for flu. That means that you are 20 times more likely to die from corona than from the flu if you were unlucky enough to be infected.

The real worry here is the rate at which this virus spreads. It is more spreadable than ordinary flu. For instance you can infect people for several days before you have any symptoms and possibly for several days after the symptoms end. Also, it is probably spreadable through the air which is less likely for the common flu. Additionally, there is a higher rate of serious complications with corona meaning a higher proportion of those with the virus end up in hospital needing intensive care.

That last point probably answers the question of why so many countries are panicking. Few countries can cope with a large number of very sick corona virus patients that need lots of oxygen, isolation and full precautionary measures for hospital staff.

Think about Dundee. There are probably only at most a few tens of hospital beds than are or could quickly become the kind of isolation rooms needed to treat this thing. Anything up to 18% of infected people get seriously sick. A good comparison is with the H1N1 virus (Swine Flu). As many as 2% to even up to 40% of the UK population caught that virus which is likely harder to catch than corona. Even 2% of Dundee's population is 3,000 people. If 18% of them get seriously sick at the same time (including 18% of health workers), that equals over 500. Quite simply the city's health services could not cope.

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1 hour ago, andrak said:

China has taken draconian measure because it can. Few countries can do what they have done and actually, I believe they haven't done nearly as much as they are asking the world to believe. The videos and pictures they are allowing to be sent out depict only relatively high-end areas and those measures that directly impact relatively wealthy people. China has shockingly bad hygiene standards and very poor healthcare standards for most citizens. I believe it would be almost impossible to reduce the spread of this virus even with much more draconian actions. The numbers coming from China are for western consumption. Many believe there is perhaps a factor of 10 difference between what is actually known and what is being reported. As for the difference between what is known and what is actually happening depends on how many tests they are conducting. The issue there is that, like many other countries, if you don't test people, you can't have confirmed infections.

I think while the mortality rate is much less than the common flu, meaning that many more people die each year from ordinary flu, the case fatality rate rate for corona is about 20 times higher than that for flu. That means that you are 20 times more likely to die from corona than from the flu if you were unlucky enough to be infected.

The real worry here is the rate at which this virus spreads. It is more spreadable than ordinary flu. For instance you can infect people for several days before you have any symptoms and possibly for several days after the symptoms end. Also, it is probably spreadable through the air which is less likely for the common flu. Additionally, there is a higher rate of serious complications with corona meaning a higher proportion of those with the virus end up in hospital needing intensive care.

That last point probably answers the question of why so many countries are panicking. Few countries can cope with a large number of very sick corona virus patients that need lots of oxygen, isolation and full precautionary measures for hospital staff.

Think about Dundee. There are probably only at most a few tens of hospital beds than are or could quickly become the kind of isolation rooms needed to treat this thing. Anything up to 18% of infected people get seriously sick. A good comparison is with the H1N1 virus (Swine Flu). As many as 2% to even up to 40% of the UK population caught that virus which is likely harder to catch than corona. Even 2% of Dundee's population is 3,000 people. If 18% of them get seriously sick at the same time (including 18% of health workers), that equals over 500. Quite simply the city's health services could not cope.

Re the reported numbers, I think an issue has been the test kits being expensive and finite, the total numbers shown was more or less the number of test kits they had from what I understand (and even then, they are reported to give a lot of false negatives). Not going to waste a test on a mid 20s person who has got the shits but otherwise seems fine but only really serious cases.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. We could be waiting a decade for a vaccine if some more bleak predictions play out to be true. We can't stay in forever and industry can't keep grinding to a halt. You could see a scenario where we're looking at an emergency budget to get the medical resources we need in the midst of Brexit. It's hard to see how Ninewells would cope with that, never mind a less developed country. No way Americans are going to be taking sick days with their shitty employment rights and health care (although if you make the median line, they'll be very happy to bill your insurance company for an MRI when assessing your staved finger).

Coincidentally, Netflix had an interesting documentary released about this exact issue in the new year, 'Pandemic'. There's a struggle as it is just dealing with the common flu!

 

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5 hours ago, andrak said:

By the way, it may seem weird that I am writing so much about this. I'm an accountant not a health professional, but I do have good reasons to be up to date with info on this virus, honest.

Thanks Andrak. I have not been paying any attention to this. I am afraid I am a cynic and think that politicians will say whatever they think will serve their own best interest. 

One of my pals said something about not believing that China is beating this virus that is being pumped out by their press. As you say, images of cities are only a part of Chinese society and what happens up country will be very different.

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