Top 6 Finish Imperative

[islaydarkblue]

In my opinion we must finish in the top six otherwise there is a danger that we might end up being sucked into the battle to avoid finishing eleventh in the league.

We are now only 7 points ahead of Ross County and 10 ahead of Motherwell who are in the dreaded 11th (play-off) place in the league.

[Prince Buster]

Not imperative but would certainly let us enjoy the last five games.

[Derry Drummer]

Not imperative but would certainly let us enjoy the last five games.

10 points isn't much. I honestly thought it was more.

[Deestruction]

10 points, with 2 games in hand, and only 6 more matches to play after them.  Not worried.  Yet.

[Mr Gandosaur]

Also got to remember all the teams below us remaining games are against each other from now on, so it would be nearly impossible for all 5 to finish above us. 

[Dundeefc1783]

Also got to remember all the teams below us remaining games are against each other from now on, so it would be nearly impossible for all 5 to finish above us.

Think Jim Duffy thought the same in 2005 😳

[chomp my root]

Think Jim Duffy thought the same in 2005

Aye, I read that and had a wee shudder. 

[8utters]

The game on Saturday for Motherwell will probably determine how their season goes - win it and Partick are dragged right into the relegation battle, lose it and it's all but over.

One win out of our last 3 before the split may be enough for the top 6 but it may also be enough if we finish in the bottom 6.

[Derry Drummer]

The game on Saturday for Motherwell will probably determine how their season goes - win it and Partick are dragged right into the relegation battle, lose it and it's all but over.

One win out of our last 3 before the split may be enough for the top 6 but it may also be enough if we finish in the bottom 6.

Motherwell have done same as Ross County and pushed a final charge to survive.

It's not over at the bottom I don't think.

[troodee1893]

Can anyone with more brains than me work out what the minimum number of points we require to be sure of 10th place if we are not already there ?

[Derry Drummer]

Can anyone with more brains than me work out what the minimum number of points we require to be sure of 10th place if we are not already there ?

Its more than there is left before the split I'm sure.

Due to it being close, the split will save us.

[markthedee]

Straight up, simple analysis - 50 points guarantees safety (Motherwell's theoretical maximum is 49).

But because there's another four teams between us and them, whom Motherwell will be playing, the total decreases. The best way of doing it is to start from second bottom and keep working up on the basis that each team beats every team above them, but not below them.

That means each team's maximum is (assuming Partick and Killie both lose to Celtic pre-split):

Motherwell - 49

Ross County - 49

Partick Thistle - 47

Kilmarnock - 47

Which implies 48 points required - 2 wins and a draw from where we are now.  If we get that pre-split, we're top-6 guaranteed so it's all academic. But if we don't pick up anything pre-split (worst case scenario), it gets complicated again because we'd need to beat at least one of the other four teams, reducing their theoretical maximum (even allowing for beating St Mirren for one of the wins). 

I think 44 (one win) all but guarantees it; 46 effectively guarantees it; 48 does guarantee it.