#topsixsaturday Scenarios

[ForzaDundee]

Good run-down here - https://splstats.wordpress.com/2016/03/15/the-201516-run-in/

Amazing the amount of possible scenarios still open.

Edited 8 April 2016 by ForzaDundee

[Prince Buster]

Interesting quote in there

'Note that the various scenarios outlined in italics are theoretically possible, but highly unlikely (typically involving 10+ goal wins, or 6-5, 7-6, 6-6 type results).  These can almost certainly be ignored.'

History however tells us otherwise.

[kemback1997]

Bored at work so had a look at the points of the sixth placed team after 33 games over the years - only confirms what we know; lose on Saturday and we're out, draw and we have a 33% chance or win and we're top six.  *Non stattos stop reading at this point!!!!! 

2001  41  Dundee

2002  42  Hearts

2003  42  Dundee

2004  42  United

2005  43  Motherwell

2006  48  Aberdeen

2007  44  Hibs

2008  44  Aberdeen

2009  42  Hibs

2010  44  Hearts

2011  44  Motherwell

2012  48  Hearts

2013  44  United

2014  48  St Johnstone

2015  44  Dundee

Also had a look at the Urban Myth that we were 9 points ahead of Livi in 2005 at the split, especially since Tam McManus has mentioned it to Richard Gordon on Radio Rangers several times this past week.  It appears that we were eight points ahead of them at the end of February (the maximum gap) but only four points above them at the split.  We were nine points ahead of the Dabs at the start of April but they had a game in hand.  http://www.statto.com/football/stats/scotland/premier-league/2004-2005/table/2005-02-26

Our fellow bottlers Hibs were four points above second bottom at the split in 2014. 

[WoodStein]

You're correct that we were 9 points ahead of the Arabs on Sat 9th April, having won our last 2 games (following a very poor run in Feb/Mar), but both Livi & the Arabs had still to play that 32nd game, on Sunday & Monday, after which we were only 6 points clear of the Arabs, and 7 clear of 12th place (Livi).

I'm unsure when (before or after this) that JD made his iconic (& definitely not mythical  ) comment that "we only need one more win", but then fell spectacularly as the others won at least 2 games each, while we finished off with 4 defeats & 2 draws.

...and then....      if you change the weeks in kemback's web link above, you see how we were bypassed

 

when you look at the "form" columns it's pretty grim

     

[edit:  don't think I did the attachments right, you have to click on the wee icons]

Edited 8 April 2016 by WoodStein

[Reverend Lovejoy]

You're correct that we were 9 points ahead of the Arabs on Sat 9th April, having won our last 2 games (following a very poor run in Feb/Mar), but both Livi & the Arabs had still to play that 32nd game, on Sunday & Monday, after which we were only 6 points clear of the Arabs, and 7 clear of 12th place (Livi).

I'm unsure when (before or after this) that JD made his iconic (& definitely not mythical  ) comment that "we only need one more win", but then fell spectacularly as the others won at least 2 games each, while we finished off with 4 defeats & 2 draws.

13-04-2005.jpg

...and then....      if you change the weeks in kemback's web link above, you see how we were bypassed

22-05-2005.jpg

when you look at the "form" columns it's pretty grim

     

[edit:  don't think I did the attachments right, you have to click on the wee icons]

The Inverness game at Dens, where we allowed home fans in behind both goals, was the turning point I think and a game we really, really should have won.

Not so much at stake tomorrow in terms of league safety but still very important in helping shaping how we approach next season in terms of financing new recruitments, possible/potential Euro futba and a possible post League title win record high finish.

C'mon Dundee.

[Cobra]

ICT's season is effectively over. They're not going to make top six so you wonder how up for it they'll be at the sticklebrick. Could be an easy three points for the dabs.

[DFC1974]

ICT's season is effectively over. They're not going to make top six so you wonder how up for it they'll be at the sticklebrick. Could be an easy three points for the dabs.

With the stats provided above, I think their season is far from over! They have the same point margin over Killie as we had over Livi at this stage in 2005. I think ICT will be desperately looking for the 'one more win' Jim Duffy mentioned 11 years ago!!

[Cobra]

With the stats provided above, I think their season is far from over! They have the same point margin over Killie as we had over Livi at this stage in 2005. I think ICT will be desperately looking for the 'one more win' Jim Duffy mentioned 11 years ago!!

When I say their season is effectively over what I mean is that they will stay up no problem IMO. You might be right in thinking they'll be desperate to confirm their safety this weekend but I suspect United will be hungrier as it's last chance saloon for them.

I never felt Dundee were safe in 2005 because we had a very poor squad and had been over-achieving to be off the bottom all season.

[bjs]

ICT's season is effectively over. They're not going to make top six so you wonder how up for it they'll be at the sticklebrick. Could be an easy three points for the dabs.

Agree cobra, can't see anything else than a home win and if the dabs score early they could run amok and win by 3 or 4. It's a depressing thought but I think the gap between them and killie will be cut to either 2 or 3 points after today and that in itself will have Hamilton and ICT looking nervously over there shoulders as they will require that "one more win" to be safe.

[WoodStein]

Reverend Lovejoy, on 08 Apr 2016 - 11:25 PM, said:

The Inverness game at Dens, where we allowed home fans in behind both goals, was the turning point I think and a game we really, really should have won.

Not so much at stake tomorrow in terms of league safety but still very important in helping shaping how we approach next season in terms of financing new recruitments, possible/potential Euro futba and a possible post League title win record high finish.

C'mon Dundee.

You're correct re that ICT game....I'm sure this was the game where Wilkie's knee gave way again, and the silence I thought confirmed the realisation that our defence was going to collapse without him.....and it did.

Today is, as you say, a very different matter, one with positive carrots rather than the threat that 2005 presented. I do think, if we can win, that the opportunity to get the club a 4th place finish, is a great incentive. 

Fingers will be crossed!

DFC1974, on 09 Apr 2016 - 08:16 AM, said:

With the stats provided above, I think their season is far from over! They have the same point margin over Killie as we had over Livi at this stage in 2005. I think ICT will be desperately looking for the 'one more win' Jim Duffy mentioned 11 years ago!!

I suspect the "just one more win" concept is a curse that brings its own pressure....certainly was for us, can't wait to read about Mixu saying it in the Courier soon 

[chomp my root]

When I say their season is effectively over what I mean is that they will stay up no problem IMO. You might be right in thinking they'll be desperate to confirm their safety this weekend but I suspect United will be hungrier as it's last chance saloon for them.

I never felt Dundee were safe in 2005 because we had a very poor squad and had been over-achieving to be off the bottom all season.

They might still have players who are looking for another contract who are keen to impress and they'll still want to win every game they can for placings etc. Arguably United have more at stake though. Even a draw would be decent, another game closer to make up the points although I'm hoping for the full Carlsberg, not just a half. 

[Reverend Lovejoy]

You're correct re that ICT game....I'm sure this was the game where Wilkie's knee gave way again, and the silence I thought confirmed the realisation that our defence was going to collapse without him.....and it did.

Today is, as you say, a very different matter, one with positive carrots rather than the threat that 2005 presented. I do think, if we can win, that the opportunity to get the club a 4th place finish, is a great incentive. 

Fingers will be crossed!

I suspect the "just one more win" concept is a curse that brings its own pressure....certainly was for us, can't wait to read about Mixu saying it in the Courier soon 

I think "one more Gin" might be closer to Mixu's thoughts right now.